Year 2022: Whether it was a wonderful year or a dreadful one for the Indian Economy!

  • Prof. Gourav Vallabh

The epic economist of global fame of the country, Narendra Modi, is a know-it-all because all the knowledge of the world - from economics to astronomy, to robotic science, to botany, to anatomy, to Sanskrit, to Hindi, to French language everything resides in him. So, he depicted his knowledge of economics in his ‘Mann Ki Baat’ on December 25 by saying that 2022 was a wonderful year, and said that 2022 was a wonderful year regarding economic systems. “2022 is a wonderful year as far as Indian economy is concerned” these were his words.

Let us remind him of 7 issues today related to 2022 - Not the older ones like demonetisation. He gets hurt because of that. We will not remind him of wrongly levied GST, that also causes a lot of trouble. Nor will we remind him of the lockdown imposed without preparation, that too hurts him a lot. They are all the government figures for 2022, there is not a single private figure. I will put 7 points of the economic issues of 2022 in front of you and will ask the Honourable Prime Minister if the year 2022 was a wonderful one or a dreadful one for the Indian Economy!

Was it a wonderful year for the Indian economy or was it a year that we would like to forget, that we would not like to remember?

The Prime Minister said that the country has become the fifth largest economy which exposes his reality and his full account.

There are 5 largest economies of the world, in which India has now joined. At the first number is America, whose GDP is $ 23 trillion, then comes China with $ 17.7 trillion, Japan with $ 4.9 trillion, Germany with $ 4.2 trillion and India with $ 3.2 trillion. But Prime Minister Ji, there is no comparison with GDP. Compare Capita on GDP. The Capita Income on GDP of the world’s largest economy America is about 70 thousand dollars. China’s is 13 thousand dollars, Japan’s is about 39 thousand dollars, Germany’s is 50 thousand dollars, India’s is only, 2,277 dollars per year.

You compare absolute numbers at one time and then capita at other time as per your wish. If you had to take absolute numbers, then why did you compare in percentage the number of people who caught corona in India? And what percentage of people of India died due to corona?

When comparing economies, you come across two figures. There is a family consisting of two members and earning one lakh rupees. So how much was earned per person Rs. 50,000. The second is a family with total income of one lakh rupees, and there are 20 members in the family. So, what was the income per person? Rs. 5,000 only. But the people who are infected, according to Modi Ji, all of them keep this absolute number in front of you. As far as per capita GDP is concerned, we are at 142nd position out of 197 countries of the world. This is incredible Modi Ji!

But in per capita income, our place is 142nd among 197 countries of the world. Where the world has the highest per capita GDP, our per capita GDP is 60 times less and here the Prime Minister is saying-wonderful year as far as Indian economy is concerned. We are at 142nd position out of 197 in per capita income and Prime Minister is saying it is a wonderful year, point number one.

Point number-2, our rank in the Hunger Index is 107th and that too in the same year, among 121 countries and the Prime Minister is saying that it has been a wonderful year! Only Afghanistan is behind us in the Hunger Index in Asia. The rest, be it Pakistan, Nepal or Sri Lanka, their ranking in the Hunger Index is better than ours. Our rank is 107 out of 121 countries. If we take the example of Bangladesh, its rank is 84, Nepal’s rank 81, Sri Lanka’s rank 64, Pakistan’s rank 99 and the PM says it has been a wonderful year! We have the highest child wasting rate in the world. Child wasting rate means that how many people, how many children are malnourished according to their age and their height, are underweight. We have the highest child wasting rate in the world. Apart from Afghanistan, our rank in the Hunger Index is lower than all other countries in Asia.

Point number-3 is about the basket of Asia. The Indian rupee remained the worst performing currency in 2022 within the basket of Asia, surprisingly, the depreciation of rupee has been more than 10 percent in the last year 2022 only. The value of the rupee is depreciated by more than 10 percent. Prime Minister is talking about it being a wonderful year. This is a wonderful year as far as Indian economy is concerned.

Point number-4, Prime Minister Ji, I have made a complete table for you to read it. The rating agencies of the world and the Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, what did they forecast the GDP of the Indian economy when the current financial year 2022-23 started and what they have forecasted today. What have you revised?

According to the State Bank of India, when the financial year started, the GDP forecast was 7.5 percent, now they have revised it to 6.8 percent. The World Bank had forecast a GDP of 7.5, then revised it to 6.9 percent. Citigroup had said that the GDP forecast will be 8 in this current financial year, now they have revised it to 6.7 percent. The IMF had said that there would be a GDP growth of 7.4 percent, but they revised it to 6.8 percent. Fitch had said that there will be a GDP growth of 7.8 percent, now they have revised it to 7 percent. India Ratings had said that there would be 7 percent GDP growth, they revised it to 6.9 percent. The Reserve Bank of India had said that the GDP growth would be 7.2 percent, but they revised it to 7 percent. The Asian Development Bank had said that the GDP growth rate would be 7.2 percent and they revised it to 7 percent. All the banks of the world, rating agencies, the Central Bank of our country, the State Bank have again downgraded the GDP forecast of the country and Modi ji is saying that it was a wonderful year.

Point number-5 and this is a very important and serious point. In the country today, the unemployment rate in urban areas is 10 percent and aggregate is 8.6 percent. What is the meaning of unemployment rate it is that how many people are seeking employment and how many people are in employment. So, I say that there is 10 percent unemployment rate in the urban area, i.e., if 100 people are employed in the cities, then 10 people who want employment, do not have employment. Notice that during UPA in 2011-12, this rate was 2.2 percent.

THESE ARE Government of India’s, NSSO data. Modi ji has turned the entire demographic dividend into a demographic disaster. How long will we continue to beat about Corona that employment is destroyed due to Corona. Till when will we hide our failures by hiding behind Russia and Ukraine.10 per cent is the unemployment rate in urban India and aggregate is 8.6 percent and Modi Ji is saying that 2022 is a wonderful year.

Point No. 6- As much as there is data for 11 months in the whole year, because now the data for the 12th month will come in January. Retail inflation in 10 out of 11 months was more than the upper limit of 6 percent set by RBI and Modi ji is saying that it was a wonderful year. In 11 out of 12 months of the entire year, the Reserve Bank is in the upper limit zone of inflation. The Reserve Bank said that the optimal should be 4 percent, the minimum should be 2 percent, the maximum should be 6 percent. For the whole year, in 10 out of the last 11 months, it was higher than the Reserve Bank’s zone of 6 percent. Modi ji is saying that it was an amazing year, a wonderful year!

He made a record 5 times in the year 2022 - milk prices increase 5 times in a year. Everyone got a gift from Modi ji on the first of January. The price of milk has increased by Rs. 2 per liter from today. Inflation remained above 6 percent continuously. The Reserve Bank of India is forecasting 6.7 percent inflation in the current financial year and Modi ji is saying that it was a wonderful year!

Another figure, when the prices of petrol and diesel were changed for the last time in May 2022, from that day till today, the petroleum ministry of the Government of India has reduced the price of crude oil by $ 32 per barrel. From May, 2022 to date $ 32 per barrel, the crude oil prices have gone down and there is an estimate that if the price of crude oil falls by one dollar per barrel, then the price of petrol and diesel can be reduced by about 40 to 45 paise. In the last more than 200 days, there has been a decrease of $32 per barrel i.e. Modi ji could have reduced Rs. 14.40 paise per liter on petrol and diesel without even touching the excise duty, but he did not do so; so that the retail inflation remained at 6.7 percent. In many months of this year, there was more than 12 percent, more than 7 percent retail inflation. So, when the crude oil price increases, Modi ji increases the price. But when the crude oil price decreases even by $32 per barrel, the prices were not reduced. Modi Ji, is this a wonderful year as far as Indian economy is concerned?

Last Point Number-7- Rate Deficit and Exports of India are continuously decreasing. Our exports are continuously decreasing, trade deficit is increasing. And Modi ji is saying that 2022 was wonderful year as far as calendar year 2022 is concerned.

You have wonderful knowledge of all subjects, all things, you must be understanding this. Now regarding these seven points, Modi ji, do you think that 2022 is a wonderful year or a dreadful year?

Based on Press Briefing on December 27, 2022